When GB3YL was on the air, it was rarely used, despite a great service area, and the people that used it are doing fine without it. In East Anglia, NONE of the repeaters are busy, but there are very large numbers of active and keen hams - On the spur of the moment, I went to the Barford Rally, near Norwich - I last went in 1986. Lots of people, lots of the old equipment on sale - same friendly attitude. The thing missing? Under 30s. The thing very clear to me is that the active hams simply have no need to chat using radios any longer. Many have moved to exciting microwave bands where they're doing loads of stuff, and others have gone down to the HF bands, many using new modes. There seems to be a strange thing going on - people 'think' the hobby is simply about portable working with handhelds - and these people need the repeater network because a few Watts gets you no distance at all without the repeaters, yet I'm told that very few of these people ever contribute anything to keeping the networks running. Money of course, but also all the other stuff repeater keepers often need a hand with.
I hear many people moaning about YL - yet quite a few are not members of the local radio club who support the repeater.
What I sadly believe is happening is that ham radio seems to have stopped the learn and progress process - which is what happened in the past. New things, some quite exciting, and everyone with a different focus - diverse interests and a range of people. At Barford I discovered these things still exist, but the people doing the interesting stuff simply do not wish to join in with the trivial and often embarrassing stuff on 2 and 70cm FM. Using my SDR I note lots of horizontal polarised traffic going to and from Europe on 2m, but in Lowestoft where I live so far I have seen just one rotator. White sticks for marine and 2/70 all over the place, and a few feeding into the airband networks.
12MHZ of band in 2 and 70, and all for a few handheld chats about nothing important.
As for losing it - I somehow suspect this is not on the cards for two reasons - the MoD have the rights to the UHF band, and currently don't need it - BUT - because we use the band on a secondary basis, when there is need, we lose it, as we did in the olympics. We are simply caretakers. If the MoD surrendered the band the phone companies would snap it up as quickly as they can. The MoD connection prevents this. 2m is too small a band for this kind of thing and is an internationally agreed and protected band.
The best thing is for amateurs to progress and grow out of the handheld playground. In fact, for just a few quid, and group could have their own legal repeater on one single channel, and do exactly the same things as they currently do as a 'ham'. What sort of hobby only requires a quick read of a booklet, and then get a pass to the airwaves? Some of the questions from licensed hams prove that for many - they didn't understand anything of the background.
A few, who probably did OK at physics in school have the ability to progress out of the nursery which 2/70 has become. The recent chat about baiting the troubled ham made me wonder about some people - the comments made me wonder what kind of people they are? People that I have no wish to spend any time with. Call me old fashioned, but being nice to others, courtesy and forgiveness are pretty nice traits to have. The people bullying the person with a clear problem are simply unpleasant individuals - they can have 2 and 70 if they like.
Maybe the people are the problem? Who knows?