A sunspot from the next solar cycle.

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A sunspot from the next solar cycle.

Postby m0lsx » Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:24 pm

Over the weekend, a magnetically reversed sunspot appeared in the sun's northern hemisphere. Its high latitude and 'backwards' magnetic polarity mark it as a member of the next solar cycle.

Is Solar Minimum over? Not even close, but this development does suggest that Solar Cycle 25 is stirring.


Spotted on Southgate ARC's news site.
So it looks like the band conditions could now start to slowly improve over the next few years.
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Re: A sunspot from the next solar cycle.

Postby Davie Boy » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:52 pm

Some more on this...

What does this mean? First, it suggests that the solar cycle is still operative. This contradicts widespread internet buzz that a Grand Minimum is in the offing, with no new sunspots expected for decades as the solar cycle grinds to a halt. Second, if patterns of previous solar cycles hold, Solar Minimum is not finished. It will probably continue to deepen in the year or so ahead even as new Solar Cycle 25 sunspots occasionally pop up, promising an ultimate end to the lassitude.

More... https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/11 ... lar-cycle/
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Re: A sunspot from the next solar cycle.

Postby Davie Boy » Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:43 pm

To be fair... I still don't completely get what this means...?

Does this mean radio signals are going to improve over the next year or so...? Will we pick up farther signals than before...?

I hope so... there are stations and business I used to pick up fine years back that are still going... but I have to travel closer to them to hear them so I know the range I can pick up has decreased... especially with transmissions that are at greater distances...
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Re: A sunspot from the next solar cycle.

Postby m0lsx » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:02 pm

Sunspots work on an approximate 11 year cycle. There is a peak, potentially every 11 years & the same with the dip. But that does not mean that it follows an exact pattern. It simply means that if the new cycle that is starting is poor, then in around 11 years time a new cycle will be ready to start.
Some cycles are better than others. There were some really good ones a few decades ago. Back in 1980 for example you could work the USA on a wet piece of string some days on 10 meters. But the last couple of cycles have been poor. Hence the suggestion we may be at a grand minimum.
Currently we are at the solar minimum. Which is the period between one cycle ending & the new one starting. And this means that sunspots are few are far between. But a minimum does not have a set period, so potentially it could be 2 years before we see any real improvement & even then it may not be a good cycle with great propagation.
So from this point we are looking at things hopefully improving over the next 5 years.
If solar cycle 25 is a good one, then we could see things start to improve in 2020, with 2019 being a bit hit & miss for sunspots.
But propagation is about more than sunspots. So although HF will mainly be dead 10 meters & up will continue to have peaks that make for some good days.
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Re: A sunspot from the next solar cycle.

Postby Davie Boy » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:37 pm

Thanks for that Alan... lets hope 25 is a good one... :thumbup:
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